Betting on Longshots, and Winning

How many times have you played a heavy favorite, only to lose the bet? Just because the books make you pay a lot to bet on team doesn't mean the game is a lock.

Every year I win several bets that pay out +300 or more. Most of the games that pay that high are truly bad bets. The trick is in knowing how to identify when those teams do have a good chance of winning the game, regardless of what the bookie says.

Especially early in the season, when a lot of what the books base their opinion on is last years performance and speculation. For example, take first three weeks of the 2013 NFL season.

In week one, the books and bettors figured the worst defense in the league last year would be the worst again this year, so I won 275 on Tennessee. Tennessee has a new guy high up in the defensive coaching staff that was largely responsible for the Saints winning the Super Bowl in 09. The Titans have had a much better defense because of that addition. The bettors are still unaware.

In week 3, Indianapolis played the 49ers, and paid out +400 for a 27-7 win. Based on last year, that was probably the right lines for the game. But based on the first two weeks, there is no way that SF should have been that heavily favored. Their QB is off to a bad start, and so is the rest of the team. Indianapolis has a very good QB, who is only getting better.

The thing about these games is that, from all I could see in the early stats is that they should have been much closer to even money than they were. The books know that the bettors are going heavy on last years results, and that means they have to pay large amounts of money just to get a bet on a team that did not have a good season the previous year.

The key to betting long shots is finding the teams that are equal yet the books are having to pay a large amount for a bet on one team just to balance the betting. It's not the books that are dumb. It's the bettors.

Many times the books will put high lines on good teams in anticipation of the betting trends. Once they do, most people are not going to consider a team at +300 to have a chance. When you find a high payout on a winning team, it's almost always a good bet. At the very least, it's worth a closer look. You will not win half of them, but you will win more than enough of them to show a betting profit. In the end, isn't that why we play?

Don't be scared of a high number on what appears to be a long shot. Many times, the books are forced to appease the not so sharp betting public. Just because the books put a number on game doesn't always mean that the odds of a win reflected in the number are the true odds of the outcome.

You make a lot of money just by finding games between relatively equal teams, with lines that pay good money on one of them. Don't look for games where the favorite is fairly certain to win. Look for games where the dog is of equal ability to the favorite, yet the books are having to provide a strong monetary advantage on them to balance the betting.

Why Sports Betting Offers A Winning Opportunity

The world is full of gamblers. Most of them frequent the various casinos, where they are offered a variety of games to play. All of the games have one thing in common. The odds are rigged in favor of the house.

The house knows, as a mathematical certainty, that it will win a certain and predictable percentage of all money wagered. While the percentage may vary from game to game, the percentage for each game is always known beforehand.

The reason for this is that the house controls the odds. If they wish to shift the odds of blackjack, they can add or remove a deck of cards or change a rule and know the exact outcome of the change before the first hand is ever played. If they want to, they can adjust every game in the house to increase or decrease their profits if they so choose. The player has absolutely no control over the long term outcome, and the casino has 100 percent control.

When it comes to sports betting, that is no longer true. There is no mathematical formula they can apply to know beforehand what their profits will be. Instead, they try to achieve a balance of the betting to where which ever side wins, those betting on loser have wagered enough to pay the winners.

They do this one of two ways. For point spreads, they charge all bettors a premium just for taking the bet. A point spread win on a $100 bet returns only $91 to the "winner". If the book achieves balanced betting, and it usually does, it will pocket 10% of all bets placed, while the losers pay off the winners.

For money line bets, they adjust the lines to where if balanced betting is achieved, the loser will pay the winners and they pocket the difference. That's why the lines never match. For example, if a dog pays +150, the break even point on that bet is a 40% win rate. If the lines balanced out to zero, the favorite would pay -150, which indicates a 60% break even point on the bet.

Instead, what you will see in practice is lines that show approximately 105 to 110 percent probabilities. The difference between the actual lines break even total and 100% is what the books profit on balanced betting. Usually it is a little less than a point spread bet, but it is the same principle being applied. Losers pay winners with the books pocketing the difference.

That is the extent of what the books can control. Many times, the books will put out opening lines and then quickly adjust them. The adjustments are needed to balance the betting. The odds of the outcome predicted by the books does not change, but their business model requires that they balance the betting even if they have to pay more than the predicted probabilities of the outcome indicate they should.

When the book has to pay more than the original predictions of the probabilities to entice bettors to bet on a dog, the value of the dog increases. It becomes profitable to take a bet when the probabilities of the outcome are predicted at 55-45, yet the line is profitable 60-40.

The books also take into account the expected balance of betting base on their experience with the bettor. Some teams are just not that popular with the betting public, while others are very popular. For the more unpopular teams, and advantage is built into the opening lines.

Understanding how the books make their money, and where they give it away, is essential in understanding how to win money from them. It is what opens up the possibility of winning money sports betting, where other games are a no win proposition for the long term bettor.

In sports betting, you control the rules and the odds you play for. If done properly, you will always bet with a monetary advantage on teams the books are having to pay a premium on just to get the betting balanced. If you make rules that prevent doing otherwise, you will most likely win some money in your long term betting.

Early Season Betting

Probably the most frequently asked question I get from customers is how should they approach the early season, when the stats are basically empty and no systems can really be applied. That is one area of sports betting that is best approached with strategies rather than systems. With the NHL starting, to be followed shortly by the NBA, I thought it would be a good time to reveal the best strategies for betting in the early season.

During the early season, the books business model is the same as it is in the middle or at the end of the season. They need balanced betting to guarantee their profits, and they do everything possible to achieve it from the first game to the last. For the bettor, we have to understand what the books are trying to achieve. They are, after all, our competition.

In the early season the books know that most bettors are more focused on the previous years performance as an indicator of how a team may do this season. Because of that, they are often having to pay extreme payouts to achieve their goal of balanced betting. Even if the books know a team is likely to be better this season than last they still have to anticipate what the public is going to do when setting their lines.

As the bettor, our job in the first few games is to predict which bad teams last year are going to be improved this year. At best, there is a lot of guesswork involved in making these predictions. But there are other indicators we can look for.

As an example, the Tennessee Titans were one of the worst defenses in the league last season. They did, however, add a high level coach to the defense that was instrumental in taking the Saints to the Super Bowl in 09. As a result of that addition, they have made great improvements this year on defense, and their record reflects that. Not only that, but it has rubbed off on the offense and Tennessee is playing like a contender this year.

That early season window has now been closed as Tennessee was a big favorite in week 4, but it is still a good example of what those windows look like in the early season, no matter which sport it is. The worse a team was last season, the better the lines they will get early in the next one. It's not that everybody knows they will still be bad, it's that they predict losers will keep on losing.

When betting in the early season, your main job is to predict which losers last year will be winners this year. If you can find a tangible reason why a bad team will show improvement, you can probably make some early season profits betting on them.

After a few games, those windows will begin to close and you can rely more on the systems and stats to confirm value and eliminate bad bets. But early on a good prediction of team improvement can lead to a solid start for the betting season.

How to Build a Bankroll

Everybody would love to have a big bankroll, but most sports bettors can not afford it. Or at least have the good sense not to risk the rent money on a sports bet.

One of the most asked questions I get is "How do I build up my bankroll so I can place bigger bets?". In my continuing efforts to help you take more money from the books, I will tell you what I have found to be the best and safest approach.

This method is complimentary to my betting strategies, and will not work well for the hardcore gambler who wants to place many bets every day. If you are one of those gamblers, you may want to focus on extending the life of your bankroll rather than trying to build it with long term profits because your method of playing is not conducive to making money at it.

The most asked question about bankrolls is how big should it be. I have a stock answer for that, and the amount is different for everyone. You should start your sports betting endeavors with no more than you can set on fire without changing your current situation or future prospects.

With that caveat, here is the best way to build your bankroll, while at the same time retaining a backup bankroll in the event of a catastrophic loss of the first one. In this example, I will start out with $200 for the total investment. If you need to start out with a smaller one, that is no problem, nor is it a problem if you want to start out a little larger. The math will be the same in percentages.

So now you have decided you want to be a professional sports bettor, or at least grow a decent bankroll to play with. You have decided that you can put up $200 in your new business (yes, you must look at it like a business).

The first thing you do is take $100 and commit that to wagering on games. Take the other $100 and put it in a safe place at home. Do not deposit all of it in an online book, and do not mix it with other money you need to live your life and pay bills.

The first $100 will be your playing bankroll, the second will be your backup bankroll. You will be betting in $10 units, so you are staring out with 10 units in the playing bankroll, and another 10 in the backup.

Because you are only placing one bet a day (if you are smart), you will risk no more or less than 10% of your starting bankroll on any given day. Your objective will be to increase the playing bankroll by 10 betting units. In effect, your goal each step of the way is to double the 10 units you start with.

Good fortune has befallen you, and you have doubled the initial $100 and now have $200 in your playing bankroll, or a $100 profit. Take that $100 and divide it between the two bankrolls, putting 50 in each.

After doing that, you will have a playing bankroll of $150, and a backup bankroll of the same still tucked safely away in your safe place at home. If you are playing at an online book, just have them send you a check for $50 and leave to $150 where it is.

With your new playing bankroll, you will begin playing in $15 units, or 10%. The goal once again is to get 10 units ahead.
Again, let's say that good fortune has befallen you and you achieve your goal again. This time, you will have $150 to split among the bankrolls, or $75 each. Add that to each of your bankrolls, which would leave you a $225 playing bank and a $225 backup.

Your new betting unit is still 10%, or this time around $22.50. You have doubled your playing bankroll twice, but the actual bankroll has grown by 125% over it's starting point, as has the backup still safely hiding in your safe place at home.

I think you get the picture, so let's carry it out a little so you can see how the bankroll grows over time, and with success.

On the third time going up 10 units, you will have 225 to split, or 112 for each bankroll, leaving 337 and a betting unit of 33.70.

On the fourth time going 10 units up, you will have 337 to split, or 168.50 to add to each bankroll leaving 505 in the playing bankroll, and the same in the backup still in your safe place at home.

Just continue on building this way until you reach your goal, whatever it may be. If you take $100 dollars and 10% units, you will be betting $50 units on a $500 bank after doubling it just 4 times. And you will also have a backup bankroll of 500% of the starting amount.

Time wise, that could take about a year at a 4 unit per month average profit, or less if you have a good year. It is very possible to double it in a good month, but definitely not every month If you churn a little, it could take longer.

Now, for the unaddressed question of what do you do if you bust a bankroll? It really depends on when you do it and how you want to proceed. For an example, let say you double your bankroll twice, but on the third try you bust it out. Your backup bankroll at that time would be $225, and it will need to be used to continue.

You have two choices. You can go all in with it and keep the 22.50 unit, and when you double it take the entire amount and replace the backup bankroll. Or you can split it back into two bankrolls and use an $11 unit to start over fully protected.

What you do is totally up to you. My suggestion is to keep playing with the bigger unit. But that is only a suggestion.

I rarely bust a bankroll with my betting strategy. I would have busted one in February of 2012, but I had not yet took the profits from a good January that left me over 12 units up. I hit a losing streak that would have busted a 10 unit bank had those profits been taken. I didn't bust it then because I actually had about 23 units still on the table. It took two months to recover and get back up to 23 units again, but I never had to employ my backup.

So there you have it. Many will say that 10% units is way too big. If you place a lot of bets, it is. If you follow my betting strategy it is perfect. It doubles quickly, with not as big a risk of busting as the hardcore gamblers would have you believe.

Are You Still Paying For Picks?

If I had a nickel for everybody who told me they had been burned by one professional handicapper or another, I would have a good sized bankroll. Most have soured on them to the point that they have sworn off of ever paying for a pick again.

I like to teach people about sports betting, and the topic of professional handicappers is one I have never properly addressed. For the record, I do not sell picks so I am not what you would call a professional handicapper. Nor have I ever paid someone for picks.

But I am a very experienced sports bettor, I know some professional handicappers, and I am quite familiar with the business model they use. Based on that, I think I can provide some useful insight into how they operate, generally speaking. This article does not pertain to 100% of all handicappers, because I don't know them all. But it does pertain to 100% of the ones I know, and I would think that the rest are the same.

I am not trying to dissuade you from using them, but there are some things you should consider before using them that you may not have considered before. What you do with this information is totally up to you.

First, let me state right up front that of all the handicappers I know, not a single one bets money on the picks they provide. They make their sports betting money off of their subscribers, and take zero risk other than losing clients during bad times. For many, becoming a professional handicapper is a great way to add the betting experience to sports without having to take the risk. If you want to find out for sure if the handicapper you choose bets on their picks, ask them. If I was a book I would put a +2000 line on that bet for the yes answer.

Secondly, professional handicappers do not have any magical skills or abilities that you don't have yourself. In fact, I would go so far as to say that most of them are clueless about how to actually win money betting on sports. With a focus on winning percentage over profits, they inevitable end up on the sports betting roller coaster. It's a losing strategy that will seemingly live forever.

But they have to do that because most of their customers are fixated on winning percentage as well. They would rather pay someone to pick them 60% winners at 5% profit than someone who picks them 40% winners at 20% profit. Can they really be faulted for giving the customer what they want? Anybody can focus on big favorites and hit a 60% win rate. That doesn't guarantee a profit.

Third,, whatever success you have with any handicapper is totally dependent on which cycle they are on. Are they going up the roller coaster, or down? Unfortunately, until you give them a few hundred dollars it is not possible to know.

Fourth, what do you really get for your money? A road map for gamblers? Wouldn't it be a lot more useful if these handicappers told you exactly how they arrived at their picks so you could learn from it? And maybe, just maybe, use the information yourself to make good picks on your own I the future? Once the game is over, you have nothing.

And lastly, why pay someone else to make picks for you? Isn't finding the bets half the fun? I think that most who pay for picks do so just to avoid responsibility for the inevitable losses in doing so. They can say it's not my fault I lost, because I was just playing somebody else's picks and they lost for me. But that doesn't refill the bankroll, now does it?

All of these problems associated with professional handicappers is exactly what lead me to put my betting systems and strategies down on paper. I believe it is far better to learn how to win money betting using a solid strategy and simple systems than it is to pay someone who doesn't understand how to win the game for doing the guesswork for you.

And when you consider that the vast majority of the picks these professionals send out are negative return bets (risk more than you win), I think it is safe to say that they have no idea what they are doing when it comes to actually making money betting on sports.

My conclusion, and I submit it for your consideration, is that the biggest gamble sports betting has to offer is picking and paying a professional handicapper. You may win for a while if you catch one at the right time, and maybe even show a little profit if you don't pay too much for the picks. But sooner or later, the hot streak you walked in on will end.

That leaves you with a compounding loss situation, where not only do you lose a lot of bets with terrible odds you never should have took, but you also get to pay for the privilege of having those picks sent to your email adding insult to injury.

Whether or not you continue to pay for picks is a personal choice. It is entirely up to you. But you do need to know there are other options.

You can learn to make picks yourself with simple systems and strategies. You can learn the bookies business model and understand what you need to do to win money. And you can take pride in your winning results because you did it yourself. That feeling is something you can't get from the books or a paid handicapper. And it is why I continue to bet on sports, and teach others the ways of winning.