How many times have you played a heavy favorite, only to lose the bet? Just because the books make you pay a lot to bet on team doesn't mean the game is a lock.
Every year I win several bets that pay out +300 or more. Most of the games that pay that high are truly bad bets. The trick is in knowing how to identify when those teams do have a good chance of winning the game, regardless of what the bookie says.
Especially early in the season, when a lot of what the books base their opinion on is last years performance and speculation. For example, take first three weeks of the 2013 NFL season.
In week one, the books and bettors figured the worst defense in the league last year would be the worst again this year, so I won 275 on Tennessee. Tennessee has a new guy high up in the defensive coaching staff that was largely responsible for the Saints winning the Super Bowl in 09. The Titans have had a much better defense because of that addition. The bettors are still unaware.
In week 3, Indianapolis played the 49ers, and paid out +400 for a 27-7 win. Based on last year, that was probably the right lines for the game. But based on the first two weeks, there is no way that SF should have been that heavily favored. Their QB is off to a bad start, and so is the rest of the team. Indianapolis has a very good QB, who is only getting better.
The thing about these games is that, from all I could see in the early stats is that they should have been much closer to even money than they were. The books know that the bettors are going heavy on last years results, and that means they have to pay large amounts of money just to get a bet on a team that did not have a good season the previous year.
The key to betting long shots is finding the teams that are equal yet the books are having to pay a large amount for a bet on one team just to balance the betting. It's not the books that are dumb. It's the bettors.
Many times the books will put high lines on good teams in anticipation of the betting trends. Once they do, most people are not going to consider a team at +300 to have a chance. When you find a high payout on a winning team, it's almost always a good bet. At the very least, it's worth a closer look. You will not win half of them, but you will win more than enough of them to show a betting profit. In the end, isn't that why we play?
Don't be scared of a high number on what appears to be a long shot. Many times, the books are forced to appease the not so sharp betting public. Just because the books put a number on game doesn't always mean that the odds of a win reflected in the number are the true odds of the outcome.
You make a lot of money just by finding games between relatively equal teams, with lines that pay good money on one of them. Don't look for games where the favorite is fairly certain to win. Look for games where the dog is of equal ability to the favorite, yet the books are having to provide a strong monetary advantage on them to balance the betting.
Every year I win several bets that pay out +300 or more. Most of the games that pay that high are truly bad bets. The trick is in knowing how to identify when those teams do have a good chance of winning the game, regardless of what the bookie says.
Especially early in the season, when a lot of what the books base their opinion on is last years performance and speculation. For example, take first three weeks of the 2013 NFL season.
In week one, the books and bettors figured the worst defense in the league last year would be the worst again this year, so I won 275 on Tennessee. Tennessee has a new guy high up in the defensive coaching staff that was largely responsible for the Saints winning the Super Bowl in 09. The Titans have had a much better defense because of that addition. The bettors are still unaware.
In week 3, Indianapolis played the 49ers, and paid out +400 for a 27-7 win. Based on last year, that was probably the right lines for the game. But based on the first two weeks, there is no way that SF should have been that heavily favored. Their QB is off to a bad start, and so is the rest of the team. Indianapolis has a very good QB, who is only getting better.
The thing about these games is that, from all I could see in the early stats is that they should have been much closer to even money than they were. The books know that the bettors are going heavy on last years results, and that means they have to pay large amounts of money just to get a bet on a team that did not have a good season the previous year.
The key to betting long shots is finding the teams that are equal yet the books are having to pay a large amount for a bet on one team just to balance the betting. It's not the books that are dumb. It's the bettors.
Many times the books will put high lines on good teams in anticipation of the betting trends. Once they do, most people are not going to consider a team at +300 to have a chance. When you find a high payout on a winning team, it's almost always a good bet. At the very least, it's worth a closer look. You will not win half of them, but you will win more than enough of them to show a betting profit. In the end, isn't that why we play?
Don't be scared of a high number on what appears to be a long shot. Many times, the books are forced to appease the not so sharp betting public. Just because the books put a number on game doesn't always mean that the odds of a win reflected in the number are the true odds of the outcome.
You make a lot of money just by finding games between relatively equal teams, with lines that pay good money on one of them. Don't look for games where the favorite is fairly certain to win. Look for games where the dog is of equal ability to the favorite, yet the books are having to provide a strong monetary advantage on them to balance the betting.
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