If I had a nickel for everybody who told me they had been burned by one professional handicapper or another, I would have a good sized bankroll. Most have soured on them to the point that they have sworn off of ever paying for a pick again.
I like to teach people about sports betting, and the topic of professional handicappers is one I have never properly addressed. For the record, I do not sell picks so I am not what you would call a professional handicapper. Nor have I ever paid someone for picks.
But I am a very experienced sports bettor, I know some professional handicappers, and I am quite familiar with the business model they use. Based on that, I think I can provide some useful insight into how they operate, generally speaking. This article does not pertain to 100% of all handicappers, because I don't know them all. But it does pertain to 100% of the ones I know, and I would think that the rest are the same.
I am not trying to dissuade you from using them, but there are some things you should consider before using them that you may not have considered before. What you do with this information is totally up to you.
First, let me state right up front that of all the handicappers I know, not a single one bets money on the picks they provide. They make their sports betting money off of their subscribers, and take zero risk other than losing clients during bad times. For many, becoming a professional handicapper is a great way to add the betting experience to sports without having to take the risk. If you want to find out for sure if the handicapper you choose bets on their picks, ask them. If I was a book I would put a +2000 line on that bet for the yes answer.
Secondly, professional handicappers do not have any magical skills or abilities that you don't have yourself. In fact, I would go so far as to say that most of them are clueless about how to actually win money betting on sports. With a focus on winning percentage over profits, they inevitable end up on the sports betting roller coaster. It's a losing strategy that will seemingly live forever.
But they have to do that because most of their customers are fixated on winning percentage as well. They would rather pay someone to pick them 60% winners at 5% profit than someone who picks them 40% winners at 20% profit. Can they really be faulted for giving the customer what they want? Anybody can focus on big favorites and hit a 60% win rate. That doesn't guarantee a profit.
Third,, whatever success you have with any handicapper is totally dependent on which cycle they are on. Are they going up the roller coaster, or down? Unfortunately, until you give them a few hundred dollars it is not possible to know.
Fourth, what do you really get for your money? A road map for gamblers? Wouldn't it be a lot more useful if these handicappers told you exactly how they arrived at their picks so you could learn from it? And maybe, just maybe, use the information yourself to make good picks on your own I the future? Once the game is over, you have nothing.
And lastly, why pay someone else to make picks for you? Isn't finding the bets half the fun? I think that most who pay for picks do so just to avoid responsibility for the inevitable losses in doing so. They can say it's not my fault I lost, because I was just playing somebody else's picks and they lost for me. But that doesn't refill the bankroll, now does it?
All of these problems associated with professional handicappers is exactly what lead me to put my betting systems and strategies down on paper. I believe it is far better to learn how to win money betting using a solid strategy and simple systems than it is to pay someone who doesn't understand how to win the game for doing the guesswork for you.
And when you consider that the vast majority of the picks these professionals send out are negative return bets (risk more than you win), I think it is safe to say that they have no idea what they are doing when it comes to actually making money betting on sports.
My conclusion, and I submit it for your consideration, is that the biggest gamble sports betting has to offer is picking and paying a professional handicapper. You may win for a while if you catch one at the right time, and maybe even show a little profit if you don't pay too much for the picks. But sooner or later, the hot streak you walked in on will end.
That leaves you with a compounding loss situation, where not only do you lose a lot of bets with terrible odds you never should have took, but you also get to pay for the privilege of having those picks sent to your email adding insult to injury.
Whether or not you continue to pay for picks is a personal choice. It is entirely up to you. But you do need to know there are other options.
You can learn to make picks yourself with simple systems and strategies. You can learn the bookies business model and understand what you need to do to win money. And you can take pride in your winning results because you did it yourself. That feeling is something you can't get from the books or a paid handicapper. And it is why I continue to bet on sports, and teach others the ways of winning.
No comments:
Post a Comment