Probably the most frequently asked question I get from customers is how should they approach the early season, when the stats are basically empty and no systems can really be applied. That is one area of sports betting that is best approached with strategies rather than systems. With the NHL starting, to be followed shortly by the NBA, I thought it would be a good time to reveal the best strategies for betting in the early season.
During the early season, the books business model is the same as it is in the middle or at the end of the season. They need balanced betting to guarantee their profits, and they do everything possible to achieve it from the first game to the last. For the bettor, we have to understand what the books are trying to achieve. They are, after all, our competition.
In the early season the books know that most bettors are more focused on the previous years performance as an indicator of how a team may do this season. Because of that, they are often having to pay extreme payouts to achieve their goal of balanced betting. Even if the books know a team is likely to be better this season than last they still have to anticipate what the public is going to do when setting their lines.
As the bettor, our job in the first few games is to predict which bad teams last year are going to be improved this year. At best, there is a lot of guesswork involved in making these predictions. But there are other indicators we can look for.
As an example, the Tennessee Titans were one of the worst defenses in the league last season. They did, however, add a high level coach to the defense that was instrumental in taking the Saints to the Super Bowl in 09. As a result of that addition, they have made great improvements this year on defense, and their record reflects that. Not only that, but it has rubbed off on the offense and Tennessee is playing like a contender this year.
That early season window has now been closed as Tennessee was a big favorite in week 4, but it is still a good example of what those windows look like in the early season, no matter which sport it is. The worse a team was last season, the better the lines they will get early in the next one. It's not that everybody knows they will still be bad, it's that they predict losers will keep on losing.
When betting in the early season, your main job is to predict which losers last year will be winners this year. If you can find a tangible reason why a bad team will show improvement, you can probably make some early season profits betting on them.
After a few games, those windows will begin to close and you can rely more on the systems and stats to confirm value and eliminate bad bets. But early on a good prediction of team improvement can lead to a solid start for the betting season.
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